East Area
Top seed prognosis: As stated by the FiveThirtyEight version, top seed Duke gets got the best chance of advancing to the Final Four at the entire area (53 percent likelihood ) in addition to the best odds of winning the national title (19 percent).
The Blue Devils are led by four soon-to-be first-round draft selections, such as Zion Williamson, among the greatest abilities in recent memory. Duke is a walking highlight reel on the offensive end and far stingier on defense than many may realize. This is one of Mike Krzyzewski’s most-balanced teams and jobs to be his first since 2010 to position within the top six at Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. That team won the national title.1
What this group lacks, however, is touch across the perimeter. Duke shoots a ghastly 30.2 percent from outside the arc, the worst marker among tournament-qualifying teams. In an offensive age increasingly dominated by space and perimeter scoring, then the Blue Devils could match the trend punishing the rim.
On the opposite side of the area is that the winner of the Big Ten conference tournament, Michigan State. As their benefit, the No. 2 Spartans have the honour of a possible matchup from the top overall seed in the Elite Eight. Head coach Tom Izzo was none too pleased. The Spartans are pummeled by injuries but remain among the most balanced teams in the nation, standing within the top eight in Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Virginia Tech. Directed by the star pairing of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hokies are a balanced squad which ranks one of Pomeroy’s Top 25 teams on both defense and offense. Although they have dropped eight times, only two of those were by double-digits. Virginia Tech also includes a not-altogether-unfriendly attraction, with exceptionally winnable opening matches against Saint Louis (87 percent) and the Mississippi State-Liberty winner (63 percent) before most likely running to Duke’s juggernaut. We give the Hokies a respectable 25 percent chance against the Blue Devils — and a 54 percent chance against whoever emerges from the bottom of the region if they do manage to knock off Duke.
Don’t bet : No. 3 LSU. With trainer Will Wade embroiled in a pay-for-play scandal and his team probably overvalued as a 3-seed, the Bayou Bengals could be ripe for an upset in this particular tournament. They ranked only 18th in Pomeroy’s evaluations — roughly the caliber of a No. 5 seed — thanks in large part to a defense that didn’t even crack the country’s top 60 in adjusted efficacy. (This showed up in the 51 second-half things they permitted to Florida while losing their first match of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA path is not very easy, either: Yale is no pushover for a No. 14 seed, nor will be potential second-round opponent Maryland, also we all give the Tigers a mere 26 percent likelihood of beating Michigan State if the groups meet at the Sweet Sixteen. This is easily the lowest-rated top-three seed within the area.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Belmont. The East is top-heavy, with Duke and Michigan State soaking up most of the Last Four odds. But the Bruins are still an intriguing lower-seeded team because of an impressive crime led by do-everything swingman Dylan Windler. According to Pomeroy, Belmont ranks 20th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (and second nationally in raw points per game behind Gonzaga), whereas Windler was among only 3 players nationwide to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Even though the Bruins do have to acquire a play-in match against Temple just to make the field of 64 — we give them a 59 percent chance — they’d have a very competitive 39 percent likelihood of upsetting Maryland in the first round and an even greater chance from the LSU/Yale winner.
Player to watch: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Three decades back, zzo said he thought his 6-foot-1 freshman would be Michigan State’s greatest passer because Magic Johnson. The Spartans’ do-everything point guard — one of the best facilitators in the nation — is supporting his coach’s comment. Only Murray State’s Ja Morant, a surefire lottery pick in this year’s draft, has a higher assist speed than Winston (46.0 percent). And behind Winston, the Spartans help on the maximum rate of field goals in the nation.
The junior also appears to be Izzo’s leading scorer and among the country’s top perimeter threats, shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc. As injuries have relentlessly sapped the Spartans of the on-court production, Winston has elevated his game to compensate. As he set it to The Athletic,”I must do a whole lot for my own team to win”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Central Florida over No. 8 VCU (47 percent); No. 11 Belmont* over No. 6 Maryland (39 percent); No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Louisville (34 percent)
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